An Issue with Donald Keene Regarding Emperor Komei's Death by Smallpox（孝明天皇の暗殺論を巡って）

As will become apparent to those unacquainted with the topic, it is a somewhat controversial topic, for obvious reasons. It is an issue which I have been aware of for more than 15 years, since first reading Jansen’s book (Sakamoto Ryoma and the Meiji Restoration), and one that I started writing a post about a year or so ago. 

Tomorrow is the change of era name in Japan, with the current Emperor Akihito abdicating and his son, Prince assuming the throne. Today is the last day of the Heisei Era in Japan's naming system, and tomorrow is the first day of the new era, Reiwa. Last week a man the police are hunting for left two knives on the school desk of the emperor’s junior high school age grandchild (https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20190427/p2a/00m/0na/006000c), so this seemed as appropriate a time as any to finish this post and put it up.

Though I only have studied Keene’s writings in relation to prosecuting the lawsuit against the CIA et al., since he is more of a scholar of literature than history per se, his book on Emperor Meiji and his period contains the most detailed account in English about the death of Emperor Komei (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emperor_K%C5%8Dmei) and the various theories that he was assassinated. The English language Wikipedia page has scant information on this topic, but the Japanese Wikipedia page much more (https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%AD%9D%E6%98%8E%E5%A4%A9%E7%9A%87#%E5%B4%A9%E5%BE%A1%E3%81%AB%E3%81%BE%E3%81%A4%E3%82%8F%E3%82%8B%E7%96%91%E6%83%91%E3%81%A8%E8%AB%96%E4%BA%89), some of which I will briefly refer to with an English translation, in order to provide the basics.

Anyone who followed the lawsuit in detail (beyond the scope I’ve made available on the blog) will know that I submitted two lengthy excerpts from that book to elucidate historical and political angles being plied by the CIA and their political cohorts in the LDP, etc., with respect to religion, in particularly. Chapter 11 of the books from those submissions to the court will be posted here, with a couple passages excerpted and discussed with respect to other more thoroughgoing reference in Japanese.

Here, the broad context related to theocracy, and the impact of the untimely death of Emperor Komei cannot be overstated with respect to the Bakumatsu period, but that is complex.

In short, while there are theories that Emperor Komei was poisoned (e.g., arsenic), it is accepted by in scholarly circles in Japan—and is basically set forth by Keene—that Emperor Komei died of smallpox. What is problematic is that there is no viable explanation as to how he contracted the disease. Regarding that critical point, modern medical science reveals the following. Since it is accepted that he had smallpox, and that is the only aspect I’m going to focus on, but suffice it to say, that if the imperial family were to have the body exhumed, whether there are traces of arsenic could be confirmed.

The following is from the World Health Organization's webpage on smallpox (https://www.who.int/csr/disease/smallpox/faq/en/).

How can I catch it and is it contagious?
The virus which causes smallpox is contagious and spreads through person-to- person contact and saliva droplets in an infected person’s breath. It has an incubation period of between 7 and 17 days after exposure and only becomes infectious once the fever develops. A distinctive rash appears two to three days later. The most infectious period is during the first week of illness, although a person with smallpox is still infectious until the last scabs fall off.

The only anecdotal reference Keene presents that is purported to account for how Komei might have contracted the disease is from a record of the Meiji period that was written long after the death of Komei, and still contains only an account that does not jibe with modern medical science.

Meanwhile, none of the contemporary accounts have any indications as to anyone else in the court having come into contact with the disease, let along contracting it. At the time, Japanese were well familiar with the disease, but not with the mode of its transmission as had been the case in the West. Smallpox had been weaponized by the British and used against peoples whose land they sought to colonize.
On page 94 of Keene’s book is the following account:

On January 10, 1867, the emperor conferred on Tokugawa Yoshinobu the title of barbarian-quelling great general, a gesture showing that his loyalty to the concept of kobu gattai had not changed. This proved to be one of the last acts of his reign. A week later, on January 16, he attended a performance of kagura dances at the palace sanctuary, even though he had been feeling unwell for some days. The court doctors said his illness was nothing worse than a cold and not sufficient reason to miss the dances, but before the performance was over, he felt so poorly that he left. From this point on, his illness worsened. Two days later, he took to his bed with a high fever. On January 20, the physicians announced that he had smallpox. On investigation it was discovered that a page named Fujimaru had caught smallpox but, after a long illness, had finally been cured. Fujimaru had begun to appear at the court again, and it was suspected that the emperor had caught the sickness from him.6

The source that Keene cites (footnote 6) regarding the page, Fujimaru, was the Record of the Emperor Meiji (Japanese only: https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%98%8E%E6%B2%BB%E5%A4%A9%E7%9A%87%E7%B4%80), a record that was not ordered to start being compiled until 1914. Emperor Komei died in 1867, and there is no contemporary record mentioning the page Fujimaru cited by any of the scholars involved in the academic debates. There are various accounts by contemporaries of the events and interactions with physicians treating the emperor. 

There was a prominent debate by two Japanese scholars in the 1990s regarding the circumstances surrounding the death of Emperor Komei:

Kiyoshi Haraguchi (discussed by Keene on p. 97, as follows) 

(https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8E%9F%E5%8F%A3%E6%B8%85) 

Haraguchi Kiyoshi, the leading proponent of the "death by illness" theory, has taken great care to establish that it was not in Iwakura's interests for Komei to have died at this time. 21 He has also painstakingly examined all the evidence concerning the symptoms of the emperor's illness, as recorded in contemporary documents (including some used by proponents of the assassination theory),
and compared these symptoms with those observed during the smallpox epidemic in Nagoya in 1946, when close to 18,000 persons were stricken. 22 His conclusion was that Komei died of illness; consequently, no one administered poison and no one planned the deed. It is unlikely we shall know the cause of Komei's death unless permission is granted to examine his remains for possible traces of arsenic.

and Takashi Ishii (not discussed by Keene) 

(https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%9F%B3%E4%BA%95%E5%AD%9D). 

Haraguchi published two papers (1989, 1991), and Ishii published one in 1996.

One statement available online is a quote of a passage from one paper by Haraguchi is translated into English by an online dictionary as follows (http://english.cheerup.jp/corpus/search?name=Kiyoshi%20KATAYAMA&page=5):

“However, according to an article of "Was the Emperor Komei killed with poison?" by Kiyoshi HARAGUCHI, it is pathologically clear that he died of smallpox.”Japanese: しかしながら、原口清の『孝明天皇は毒殺されたのか』によると、死因が天然痘であることは病理学的にも明白である。

Takashi Ishii is cited in this English language academic journal paper: https://www.jstor.org/stable/311710?read-now=1&refreqid=excelsior%3A72f6a1991cdaa483884d2943f3268900&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents)

In short, Haraguchi argues the clear case that it is clear from the record that Emperor Komei died from smallpox, while Ishii argues that he was poisoned, but there is no physical evidence.

No one, unfortunately, asks the obvious question I’ve posed above based on modern medical science, which is how Emperor Komei contracted smallpox. And I can't understand why such an obvious question wouldn't be probed by the decorated scholar, Donald Keene. Political considerations would seem to be the only viable answer to that.

Regarding smallpox used as a tool of assassination, it was well known in the West (i.e., during the British Empire against natives whose land was to be colonized, etc.), as briefly described in quoted passages below.

There is no evidence that such was the case in Japan. That is to say, the medical knowledge as to the mode of transmission of the disease was not known in Japan until introduced by the West, so far as can be determined from the literature. While the first encounter of Japanese with Western science was through a German medical text translated into Dutch during the late Edo period (more on that later), that book was translated into Japanese by a number of Japanese with medical experience, etc., over a period of years with no outside assistance. In all likelihood, knowledge about the potentially lethal use of smallpox as a biological weapon was not known to the Japanese through their early encounters with Western medical science during the Edo period. There were a number of individuals that helped the "Revere the Emperor, Expel the Barbarians" rebel movement overthrow the Shogunate by smuggling arms to them, etc., that had connections to the colonial overlords of the British Empire or government of the USA that could have provided such knowledge, however. That is not meant to present a conspiracy theory per se, but to frame some of the circumstances for fostering further investigation.

This material is from Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox#Biological_warfare), with easy to check sources.

The British used smallpox as a biological warfare agent at the Siege of Fort Pitt during the French and Indian Wars (1754–1763) against France and its Native American allies.[96][97] The actual use of smallpox had official sanction. British officers, including the top British commanding generals, ordered, sanctioned, paid for and conducted the use of smallpox against the Native Americans. As described by historians, "there is no doubt that British military authorities approved of attempts to spread smallpox among the enemy", and "it was deliberate British policy to infect the indians with smallpox".[98] On 24 June 1763, William Trent, a local trader and commander of the Fort Pitt militia, wrote, "Out of our regard for them, we gave them two Blankets and an Handkerchief out of the Small Pox Hospital. I hope it will have the desired effect."[99][100] The effectiveness of this effort to broadcast the disease is unknown. There are also accounts that smallpox was used as a weapon during the American Revolutionary War (1775–1783).[101][102]

According to a theory put forward in Journal of Australian Studies (JAS) by an independent researcher, in 1789, British marines used smallpox against indigenous tribes in New South Wales.[103] This occasion was also discussed earlier in Bulletin of the History of Medicine[104] and by David Day in his book Claiming a Continent: A New History of Australia.[105] Prior to the JAS article this theory was disputed by some academics.[106] Jack Carmody claimed the cause of the outbreak in question was more likely due to chickenpox, which at the time was sometimes identified as a mild form of smallpox. While it was noted that, in the 8-month voyage of the First Fleet and the following 14 months there were no reports of smallpox amongst the colonists and that as smallpox has an incubation period of 10–12 days it is unlikely it was present in the first fleet, it is now known that the likely source was bottles of smallpox virus possessed by First Fleet surgeons and there actually was a report of smallpox amongst the colonists – a seaman, Jefferies.

Below is an excerpt of the much longer excerpts I submitted to the court of Keene’s book, consisting solely of Chapter 11.